Effectiveness of Canadian travel restrictions in reducing burden of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Abstract

AbstractEvaluating travel restriction effectiveness in mitigating infectious disease burden is critical for informing public health policy. Here, we quantify where and when variants of SARS-CoV-2 were introduced into Canada to evaluate the extent to which travel restrictions averted viral introductions and COVID-19 case burden. Our results suggest that, across SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern subject to travel restrictions, at least 281 introductions were prevented, accounting for an averted burden of approximately 44,064 cases. This corresponds to approximately 441 averted hospitalizations, 24 averted deaths, and cost savings to Canadian health care systems of approximately 11.2 million Canadian dollars. Travel restrictions were found to be most effective when implemented rapidly during exponential case growth in the focal source and when global circulation was limited. Our analyses reveal that COVID-19 travel restrictions mitigated case burdens and highlight their value in future pandemic response.SummaryCOVID-19 travel restrictions against variants worked and were most effective when implemented rapidly and preceding new variants’ wider circulation.