Abstract
AbstractThe analysis of systematically collected data for COVID-19 infectivity and death rates has revealed in many countries around the world a typical oscillatory pattern with a 7-days (circaseptan) period. Additionally, in some countries the 3.5-days (hemicircaseptan) and 14-days periodicities have been also observed. Interestingly, the 7-days infectivity and death rates oscillations are almost in phase, showing local maxima on Thursdays/Fridays and local minima on Sundays/Mondays. These observations are in stark contrast with a known pattern, correlating the death rate with the reduced medical staff in hospitals on the weekends. One possible hypothesis addressing these observations is that they reflect a gradually increasing stress with the progressing week, which can trigger the maximal death rates observed on Thursdays/Fridays. Moreover, assuming the weekends provide the likely time for new infections, the maximum number of new cases might fall again on Thursdays/Fridays. These observations deserve further study to provide better understanding of the COVID-19 dynamics.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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