Maximisation of open hospital capacity under shortage of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

Abstract

AbstractMotiveThe Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritise staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal rollout plan is. This study investigates effects in a hospital model under different rollout schemes.MethodsA simulation model is implemented in VBA and studied for parameter variation. The implemented code is available as open access supplement.Main resultsA rollout scheme assigning vaccine doses to staff primarily by staff’s pathogen exposure maximises the predicted open hospital capacity when compared to a rollout based on hierarchical prioritisation. The effect increases under resource scarcity and increasing disease activity. Nursing staff benefits most from an exposure focused rollout.ConclusionsThe model employs SARS-CoV-2 parameters; nonetheless, effects observable in the model are transferable to other infectious diseases. Necessary future prioritisation plans need to consider pathogen characteristics and social factors.