Antiviral capacity of the early CD8 T-cell response is predictive of natural control of SIV infection

Abstract

ABSTRACTWhile most individuals suffer progressive disease following HIV infection, a small fraction spontaneously controls the infection. Although CD8 T-cells have been implicated in this natural control, their mechanistic roles are yet to be established. Here, we combined mathematical modeling and analysis of data from 16 SIV-infected macaques, of which 12 were natural controllers, to elucidate the role of CD8 T-cells in natural control. For each macaque, we considered, in addition to the canonicalin vivoplasma viral load and SIV DNA data, longitudinalex vivomeasurements of the virus suppressive capacity of CD8 T-cells. Available mathematical models do not allow analysis of such combinedin vivo-ex vivodatasets. By explicitly modeling theex vivoassay and integrating it within vivodynamics, we developed a new framework that enabled the analysis. Our model fit the data well and estimated that the recruitment rate and/or maximal killing rate of CD8 T-cells was up to 2-fold higher in controllers than non-controllers (p=0.013). Importantly, the cumulative suppressive capacity of CD8 T-cells over the first 4-6 weeks of infection was associated with virus control (Spearman’s ρ=- 0.51; p=0.05). Thus, our analysis identified the early cumulative suppressive capacity of CD8 T-cells as a predictor of natural control. Furthermore, simulating a large virtual population, our model quantified the minimum capacity of this early CD8 T-cell response necessary for long-term control. Our study presents new, quantitative insights into the role of CD8 T-cells in the natural control of HIV infection and has implications for remission strategies.