A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal

Abstract

AbstractAs climate change leads to new areas being under threat from emerg-ing pests, there is increasing demand for approaches combining mechanistic models and geospatial information. Forecasting based on modelling can in-form surveillance, early warning and management. This paper introduces a novel framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and migra-tion using knowledge of pest biology, climate and remote sensing data, wind trajectories and desert locust survey data from Locust Hub (FAO). Fur-thermore, we propose an algorithm for forecasting short-term and long-term desert locust migration based on limited reporting data.