Estimation of the COVID-19 Average Incubation Time: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis and Sensitivity Analyses

Abstract

AbstractObjectivesWe aim to provide sensible estimates of the average incubation time of COVID-19 by capitalizing available estimates reported in the literature and explore different ways to accommodate heterogeneity involved with the reported studies.MethodsWe search through online databases to collect the studies about estimates of the average incubation time and conduct meta-analyses to accommodate heterogeneity of the studies and the publication bias. Cochran’s heterogeneity statistic Q and Higgin’s & Thompson’s I2 statistic are employed. Subgroup analyses are conducted using mixed effects models and publication bias is assessed using the funnel plot and Egger’s test.ResultsUsing all those reported mean incubation estimates, the average incubation time is estimated to be 6.43 days with a 95% confidence interval (CI) (5.90, 6.96), and using all those reported mean incubation estimates together with those transformed median incubation estimates, the estimated average incubation time is 6.07 days with a 95% CI (5.70,6.45).ConclusionsProviding sensible estimates of the average incubation time for COVID-19 is important yet complex, and the available results vary considerably due to many factors including heterogeneity and publication bias. We take different angles to estimate the mean incubation time, and our analyses provide estimates to range from 5.68 days to 8.30 days.