The incubation period of COVID-19: A scoping review and meta-analysis to aid modelling and planning

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundAn accurate estimate of the distribution of the incubation period for COVID-19 is the foundational building block for modelling the spread of the SARS COV2 and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies on affected communities. Initial estimates were based on early infections, the aim of this study was to provide an updated estimate and meta-analysis of the incubation period distribution for COVID-19.MethodsThe review was conducted according to the PRISMA Scoping Review guidelines. Five databases were searched; CINAHL, MEDLINE, PUBMED, EMBASE, ASSIA, and Global Index Medicus for studies published between 1 January 2020 - 27 July 2020.ResultsA total of 1,084 articles were identified through the database searches and 1 article was identified through the reference screening of retrieved articles. After screening 64 articles were included. The studies combined had a sample of 45,151 people. The mean of the incubation periods was 6.71 days with 95% CIs ranging from 1 to 12.4 days. The median was 6 days and IQR ranging from 1.8 to 16.3. The resulting parameters for a Gamma Distribution modelling the incubation period were Γ(α, λ) = Γ(2.810,0.419) with mean, μ = α/λ.ConclusionGovernments are planning their strategies on a maximum incubation period of 14 days. While our results are limited to primarily Chinese research studies, the findings highlight the variability in the mean period and the potential for further incubation beyond 14 days. There is an ongoing need for detailed surveillance on the timing of self-isolation periods and related measures protecting communities as incubation periods may be longer.