Abstract
AbstractWe propose a new compartment model of COVID-19 spread, the broken-link model, which includes the effect from unconnected infectious links of the transmission. The traditional SIR-type epidemic models are widely used to analyze the spread status, and the models show the exponential growth of the number of infected people. However, even in the early stage of the spread, it is proven by the actual data that the exponential growth did not occur all over the world. We consider this is caused by the suppression of secondary and higher transmissions of COVID-19. We find that the proposed broken-link model quantitatively describes the mechanism of this suppression and is consistent with the actual data.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference14 articles.
1. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
2. Qualitative analyses of communicable disease models;Math Biosciences,1976
3. Novel Indicator to Ascertain the Status and Trend of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study
4. Akiyama, Y. The K indicator epidemic model follows the Gompertz curve. URL: http://www.bi.cs.titech.ac.jp/COVID-19/The_K_indicator_epidemic_model_follows_the_Gompertz_curve.html [accessed 2022-02-09]
5. Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function;Progress of Theoretical and Experimental Physics,2020
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献