Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19

Abstract

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the spreading dynamics of COVID-19. By using the parameters of the model, namely the basic reproduction number (R0) and the attenuation constant (k), the daily number of infections (DNI) and the cumulative number of infections (CNI) over time (m) are deduced and shown to be in good agreement with experimental data. This model effectively addresses three key issues: (1) inferring the conditions under which virus infections die out for a specific strain given R0; (2) explaining the occurrence of second waves of infection and developing preventive measures; and (3) understanding the competitive spread of two viruses within a region and devising control strategies. The findings highlight the potential of this simple mathematical framework in comprehensively addressing these challenges. The theoretical insights derived from this model can guide the evaluation of infection wave severity and the formulation of effective strategies for controlling and mitigating epidemic outbreaks.