Cumulative Active and Recovery Rates Based Criterion for Gradual Lockdown Exit: A Global Observation of SARS Cov-2 Management

Abstract

AbstractOn March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) had declared SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; and at present there are over 6 million cases across the globe. Based on the interim guidelines of WHO, most of the countries opted for social distancing with lockdown as the only way to control the pandemic. This led to ‘Manufacturing’ shut down, which acted as a spanner in the wheel for international supply chain leading to pressure on governments to review the protocols of the lockdown. We studied epidemiological parameters for 18 countries and obtained crossover time point referring to cumulative case active and case recovery rates and the time point for the peak positive confirmation rate in a time window of 92 days; and linked with the respective governmental decisions. For countries awaiting crossover, time series non-linear models could be used for predicting the crossover point. A sample study was carried out for India. The median time for reaching crossover for 12 countries was 37 days, while peak positive confirmation rate was 30 days after their first intervention. These countries enforced strict lockdown regulations and have shown constant improvement in their recovery rate even after crossover time point. A phase wise relaxation of lockdown is evident after crossover point in most of these countries. The crossover time point with the subsequent increasing recovery rate can be a strategy for lockdown relaxation as evident from the experiences of few countries. Also, we propose a criterion based on 28 cumulative recovery and fatality rate for micro-management of lockdown.