Trailing-edge zombie forests can increase population persistence in the face of climate change

Abstract

AbstractClimate-driven habitat shifts pose challenges for dispersal-limited, late-maturing taxa such as trees. Older trees are often the most reproductive individuals in the population, but as habitats shift, these individuals can be left behind in the trailing range edge, generating “zombie forests” that may persist long after the suitable habitat has shifted. Are these zombie forests vestiges of ecosystems past or do they play an ecological role? To understand how zombie forests affect population persistence, we developed a spatially explicit, stage-structured model of tree populations occupying a shifting habitat. Our model shows that seed dispersal from zombie forests to the range core can considerably increase the maximum rate of climate change that a population can withstand. Moreover, the entire core population can ultimately descend from recruitment-limited zombie forests, highlighting their demographic value. Our results suggest that preserving trailing-edge zombie forests can greatly increase population persistence in the face of climate change.