Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Author:
Pereira Henrique M.ORCID, Rosa Isabel M.D.ORCID, Martins Inês S.ORCID, Kim HyeJinORCID, Leadley PaulORCID, Popp AlexanderORCID, van Vuuren Detlef P.ORCID, Hurtt GeorgeORCID, Anthoni PeterORCID, Arneth AlmutORCID, Baisero DanieleORCID, Chaplin-Kramer RebeccaORCID, Chini LouiseORCID, Di Fulvio FulvioORCID, Di Marco MorenoORCID, Ferrier SimonORCID, Fujimori Shinichiro, Guerra Carlos A.ORCID, Harfoot MichaelORCID, Harwood Thomas D., Hasegawa Tomoko, Haverd VanessaORCID, Havlík PetrORCID, Hellweg StefanieORCID, Hilbers Jelle P.ORCID, Hill Samantha L. L., Hirata Akiko, Hoskins Andrew J.ORCID, Humpenöder FlorianORCID, Janse Jan H.ORCID, Jetz WalterORCID, Johnson Justin A., Krause AndreasORCID, Leclère DavidORCID, Matsui TetsuyaORCID, Meijer Johan R.ORCID, Merow CoryORCID, Obsersteiner MichaelORCID, Ohashi HarukaORCID, Poulter BenjaminORCID, Purvis AndyORCID, Quesada BenjaminORCID, Rondinini CarloORCID, Schipper Aafke M.ORCID, Settele JosefORCID, Sharp Richard, Stehfest ElkeORCID, Strassburg Bernardo B. N.ORCID, Takahashi KiyoshiORCID, Talluto Matthew V., Thuiller WilfriedORCID, Titeux NicolasORCID, Visconti PieroORCID, Ware ChristopherORCID, Wolf Florian, Alkemade RobORCID
Abstract
AbstractDespite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Cited by
17 articles.
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