Author:
Anne W.Regis,Jeeva S.Carolin
Abstract
AbstractThe World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on March 11, 2020 declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic [4] the reason being the number of cases outside China increased 13-fold and the number of countries with cases increased threefold. In this paper a time series model to predict short-term prediction of the transmission of the exponentially growing COVID-19 time series is modelled and studied. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction is performed on the number of cumulative cases over a time period and is validated over Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference4 articles.
1. D.Benvenuto , M. Giovanetti , L.Vassallo , S. Angeletti , M. Ciccozzi , Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in brief. 105340 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
2. A time series method to analyze incidence pattern and estimate reproduction number of covid-19;arXiv preprint,2020
3. R. Gupta , P. Saibal Kumar , Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak in India, medRxiv (2020).
4. World Health Organization (WHO). Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) situation [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 18]. Available from: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd.
Cited by
12 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献