Marburg Virus Outbreak and a New Conspiracy Theory: Findings from a Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting of Web Behavior

Abstract

During virus outbreaks in the recent past, web behavior mining, modeling, and analysis have served as means to examine, explore, interpret, assess, and forecast the worldwide perception, readiness, reactions, and response linked to these virus outbreaks. The recent outbreak of the Marburg Virus disease (MVD), the high fatality rate of MVD, and the conspiracy theory linking the FEMA alert signal in the United States on 4 October 2023 with MVD and a zombie outbreak, resulted in a diverse range of reactions in the general public which has transpired in a surge in web behavior in this context. This resulted in “Marburg Virus” featuring in the list of the top trending topics on Twitter on 3 October 2023, and “Emergency Alert System” and “Zombie” featuring in the list of top trending topics on Twitter on 4 October 2023. No prior work in this field has mined and analyzed the emerging trends in web behavior in this context. The work presented in this paper aims to address this research gap and makes multiple scientific contributions to this field. First, it presents the results of performing time-series forecasting of the search interests related to MVD emerging from 216 different regions on a global scale using ARIMA, LSTM, and Autocorrelation. The results of this analysis present the optimal model for forecasting web behavior related to MVD in each of these regions. Second, the correlation between search interests related to MVD and search interests related to zombies was investigated. The findings show that there were several regions where there was a statistically significant correlation between MVD-related searches and zombie-related searches on Google on 4 October 2023. Finally, the correlation between zombie-related searches in the United States and other regions was investigated. This analysis helped to identify those regions where this correlation was statistically significant.