Viral diversity and zoonotic risk in endangered species

Abstract

AbstractA growing body of evidence links zoonotic disease risk, including pandemic threats, to biodiversity loss and other upstream anthropogenic impacts on ecosystem health. However, there is little current research assessing viral diversity in endangered species. Here, combining IUCN Red List data on 5,876 mammal species with data on host-virus associations for a subset of 1,273 extant species, we examine the relationship between endangered species status and viral diversity, including the subset of viruses that can infect humans (zoonotic viruses). We show that fewer total viruses and fewer zoonotic viruses are known to infect more threatened species. After correcting for sampling effort, zoonotic virus diversity is mostly independent of threat status, but endangered species—despite a higher apparent research effort—have a significantly lower diversity of viruses, a property that is not explained by collinearity with host phylogeography or life history variation. Although this pattern could be generated by real biological processes, we suspect instead that endangered species may be subject to additional sampling biases not captured by the total volume of scientific literature (e.g., lower rates of invasive sampling may decrease viral discovery). Overall, our findings suggest that endangered species are no more or less likely to host viruses that pose a threat to humans, but future zoonotic threats might remain undiscovered in these species. This may be concerning, given that drivers of endangered species’ vulnerability such as habitat disturbance, wildlife trade, or climate vulnerability may increase virus prevalence in reservoirs and risk of spillover into humans.