Modelling of time-to-events in an ambispective study: illustration with the analysis of ABO blood groups on venous thrombosis recurrence

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn studies of time-to-events, it is common to collect information about events that occurred before the inclusion in a prospective cohort. In an ambispective design, when the risk factors studied are independent of time, including both pre- and post-inclusion events in the analyses increases the statistical power but may lead to a selection bias. To avoid such a bias, we propose a survival analysis weighted by the inverse of the survival probability at the time of data collection about the events.This method is applied to the study of the association of ABO blood groups with the risk of venous thromboembolism (VT) recurrence in the MARTHA and MEGA cohorts. The former relying on an ambispective design and the latter on a standard prospective one. In the combined sample totalling 2,752 patients including 993 recurrences, compared with the O1 group, A1 has an increased risk (Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.18, p=4.2×10−3), homogeneously in MARTHA and in MEGA. The same trend (HR=1.19, p=0.06) was observed for the less frequent A2 group.In conclusion, this work clarified the association of ABO blood groups with the risk of VT recurrence. Besides, the methodology proposed here to analyse time-independent risk factors of events in an ambispective design has an immediate field of application in the context of genome wide association studies.