Impacts of Taxon-Sampling Schemes on Bayesian Molecular Dating under the Unresolved Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Abstract

AbstractEvolutionary timescales can be estimated using a combination of genetic data and fossil evidence based on the molecular clock. Bayesian phylogenetic methods such as tip dating and total-evidence dating provide a powerful framework for inferring evolutionary timescales, but the most widely used priors for tree topologies and node times often assume that present-day taxa have been sampled randomly or exhaustively. In practice, taxon sampling is often carried out so as to include representatives of major lineages, such as orders or families. We examined the impacts of these diversified sampling schemes on Bayesian molecular dating under the unresolved fossilized birth-death (FBD) process, in which fossil taxa are topologically constrained but their exact placements are not inferred. We used synthetic data generated by simulation of nucleotide sequence evolution, fossil occurrences, and diversified taxon sampling. Our analyses show that increasing sampling density does not substantially improve divergence-time estimates under benign conditions. However, when the tree topologies were fixed to those used for simulation or when evolutionary rates varied among lineages, the performance of Bayesian tip dating improves with sampling density. By exploring three situations of model mismatches, we find that including all relevant fossils without pruning off those inappropriate for the FBD process can lead to underestimation of divergence times. Our reanalysis of a eutherian mammal data set confirms some of the findings from our simulation study, and reveals the complexity of diversified taxon sampling in phylogenomic data sets. In highlighting the interplay of taxon-sampling density and other factors, the results of our study have useful implications for Bayesian molecular dating in the era of phylogenomics.