COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting

Abstract

ABSTRACTSince the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19 free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national “re-opening” plan released in July 2021. Here we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures — assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 70% to minimise public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.