Abstract
AbstractSince the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on December 31st, 2019, with the World Health Organization being notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan (China), Taiwan has successfully ended two COVID-19 community outbreaks. For 19 days, the third community outbreak has now been successfully suppressed, putting Taiwan on path to end it too around Aug. 16th based on our forecast using an exponential model. Since May 28th the 7-day average of reported confirmed infected, which peaked at 593, has been falling to 204 on June 16th and the 7-day average of reported suspected and excluded cases increased to above 25 000. Resulting in a decrease in the ratio of the 7-day average of local & unknown confirmed to suspected cases–the identified control variable–to less than one third of its peak value. The later is a hallmark of working contact tracing, which together with testing and isolation of infected are the keys to ending the community outbreak.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference18 articles.
1. Hsiao YH , Hetherington W. Virus Outbreak: Masks required for train passengers. Taipei, Taiwan: The Taipei Times; 2020. Available from: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/ taiwan/archives/2020/04/01/2003733786.
2. Taiwan News. 5 Taiwanese attend Mayday concert despite self-monitoring for COVID. Taipei, Taiwan: Taiwan News; 2021. Available from: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/ en/news/4091789.
3. Hsu CY , Wang JT , Huang KC , Fan ACH , Yeh YP , Chen SLS . Household transmission but without the community-acquired outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi. 2021 may;.
4. Davies NG , Abbott S , Barnard RC , Jarvis CI , Kucharski AJ , Munday JD , et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 in England. Science. 2021;372(6538).
5. Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan;JAMA,2020
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献