Potential future climate change effects on global reptile distributions and diversity

Abstract

AbstractAimUntil recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.LocationGlobal, excluding AntarcticaTime period1995, 2050, 2080Major taxa studiedReptilesMethodsWe modelled the distribution of 6,296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3,768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.ResultsReptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the greatest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.Main conclusionsWith ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect as well as considerable impacts on species’ range extent, overlap, and position were visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a reassessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.