Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak

Abstract

AbstractWhile the first infection of an emerging disease is often unknown, information on early cases can be used to date it. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies have estimated dates of emergence (e.g., first human SARS-CoV-2 infection, emergence of the Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant) using mainly genomic data. Another dating attempt used a stochastic population dynamics approach and the date of the first reported case. Here, we extend this approach to use a larger set of early reported cases to estimate the delay from first infection to theNthcase. We first validate our model using data on Alpha variant infections in the UK, dating the first Alpha infection at (median) August 21, 2020 (95% interquantile range across retained simulations, IqR: July 23 – September 5, 2020. Next, we apply our model to data on COVID-19 cases with symptom onset before mid-January 2020. We date the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan at (median) November 28, 2019 (95%IqR: November 2–December 9, 2019). Our results fall within ranges previously estimated by studies relying on genomic data. Our population dynamics-based modelling framework is generic and flexible, and thus can be applied to estimate the starting time of outbreaks in contexts other than COVID-19.Author summaryWhile the first infection of an emerging disease is often unknown, information on early cases can be used to date it. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies have estimated dates of emergence of epidemic outbreaks (e.g., first human SARS-CoV-2 infection, emergence of the Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant) using mainly genomic data. Another dating attempt used a population-level stochastic approach and the date of the first reported case. Here, we extend this generic and flexible approach to use a larger set of early reported cases to estimate the time elapsed between the first infection and theNthcase. Our model dates the first Alpha infection at around August 21, 2020, and the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan at around November 28, 2019. Our findings fall within ranges previously estimated by studies relying on genomic data.