Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province

Published:2021-04-23 Issue:6540 Volume:372 Page:412-417
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Pekar Jonathan¹²^ORCID,Worobey Michael³^ORCID,Moshiri Niema⁴^ORCID,Scheffler Konrad⁵^ORCID,Wertheim Joel O.⁶^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

2. Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

3. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

4. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

5. Illumina, Inc., San Diego, CA 92122, USA.

6. Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

Abstract

Backtracking a pandemic Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have had a history of abortive human infections before a variant established a productive enough infection to create a transmission chain with pandemic potential. Therefore, the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. Pekar et al. used genome data collected from the early cases of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with molecular clock inference and epidemiological simulation to estimate when the most successful variant gained a foothold in humans. This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 in Hubei Province, China, with a likely short interval before epidemic transmission was initiated. Science , this issue p. 412

Funder

National Science Foundation

David and Lucile Packard Foundation

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

U.S. National Library of Medicine

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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