Shielding under endemic SARS-CoV-2 conditions is easier said than done: a model-based analysis

Abstract

AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic continues unabated, many governments and public-health bodies worldwide have ceased to implement concerted measures for limiting viral spread, placing the onus instead on the individual. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of this proposition using an agent-based model to simulate the impact of individual shielding behaviors on reinfection frequency. We derive estimates of heterogeneity in immune protection from a population pharmacokinetic (pop PK) model of antibody kinetics following infection and variation in contact rate based on published estimates. Our results suggest that individuals seeking to opt out of adverse outcomes upon SARS-CoV-2 infection will find it challenging to do so, as large reductions in contact rate are required to reduce the risk of infection. Our findings suggest the importance of a multilayered strategy for those seeking to reduce the risk of infection. This work also suggests the importance of public health interventions such as universal masking in essential venues and air quality standards to ensure individual freedom of choice regarding COVID-19.