The asymptotic variance of departures in critically loaded queues

Abstract

We consider the asymptotic variance of the departure counting processD(t) of the GI/G/1 queue;D(t) denotes the number of departures up to timet. We focus on the case where the system load ϱ equals 1, and prove that the asymptotic variance rate satisfies limt→∞varD(t) /t= λ(1–2/π)(ca2+cs2), where λ is the arrival rate, andca2andcs2are squared coefficients of variation of the interarrival and service times, respectively. As a consequence, the departures variability has a remarkable singularity in the case in which ϱ equals 1, in line with the BRAVO (balancing reduces asymptotic variance of outputs) effect which was previously encountered in finite-capacity birth-death queues. Under certain technical conditions, our result generalizes to multiserver queues, as well as to queues with more general arrival and service patterns. For the M/M/1 queue, we present an explicit expression of the variance ofD(t) for anyt.