Problèmes de ruine en théorie du risque à temps discret avec horizon fini

Abstract

We consider a discrete-time risk model which describes the evolution of the reserves of an insurance company at periodic dates fixed in advance. The amount of loss per unit of time corresponds to independent and identically distributed random variables with arithmetic distribution, and the process of the receipt of premiums is assumed to be deterministic, nonnegative but not uniform (instead of being constant and equal to 1 as in the standard, compound binomial model). For this model, we determine the probability of ruin (or of non-ruin), as well as the distribution of the severity of the eventual ruin, with some finite horizon. A compact and efficient exact expression is found by bringing up-to-date a generalised family of Appell polynomials. The method used is illustrated with some numerical examples.