Simulating the effects of wind and snow damage on the optimal management of Norwegian spruce forests

Abstract

Abstract Overlooking the risk of wind and snow damage in forest planning may lead to suboptimal management prescriptions. In this study, we analysed the optimal management of an even-aged, spruce-dominated stand in Norway under the risk of snow and wind damage. The management aim was to maximize discounted net revenues of timber production. We used a simulation-optimization system based on models for stand dynamics and damage, using either deterministic or stochastic approach to consider risk. The different approaches to simulating damage resulted in 41 optimization cases. The results show that considering risk leads to earlier cuttings, lower growing stock densities towards the end of the rotations and changes in the number and intensity of thinnings. The inclusion of stochastic damage provided a valid approach for considering the uncertainty associated with the risk of damage. Ignoring the effect of wind and snow damage in the calculations resulted in up to 25 per cent overestimation of the revenues. The results from this study will help to integrate the risk of natural disturbances into forestry decision-making, and provide a better understanding of the implications that snow and wind damage have on optimal forest management.