How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Author:

Coumou Dim123ORCID,Arias Paola A4ORCID,Bastos Ana56ORCID,Gonzales Charlotte Kendra Gotangco78ORCID,Hegerl Gabriele C9,Hope Pandora10,Jack Christopher11ORCID,Otto Friederike12ORCID,Saeed Fahad1113,Serdeczny Olivia1114ORCID,Shepherd Theodore G15ORCID,Vautard Robert3

Affiliation:

1. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam , the Netherlands

2. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , Department of Weather and Climate Models, Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt , Netherlands

3. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), French National Centre for Scientific Research, Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université , place Jussieu, 75252 Paris , France

4. Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental, Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia , Calle 67, No 53-108, Medellín , Colombia

5. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Integration , 07745 Jena , Germany

6. Leipzig University, Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing , 04017 Leipzig , Germany

7. Ateneo Institute of Sustainability, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights , Quezon City 1108 , Philippines

8. Department of Environmental Science, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights , Quezon City 1108 , Philippines

9. School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh University , Drummond St, EH8 9XP, Edinburgh , United Kingdom

10. Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government , 700 Collins St, Melbourne 3008 , Australia

11. Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town , Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town , South Africa

12. Grantham Institute, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London , 32 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, WC2A 3PH, London , United Kingdom

13. Weather and Climate Services , 108,Lane 1, Lake View Lanes (LVL), Korang Road, Bani Gala, Islamabad , Pakistan

14. Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin , Rudower Ch 16, 12489 Berlin , Germany

15. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Whiteknights Road, Earley Gate, RG6 6ET, Reading , United Kingdom

Abstract

Abstract With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community's role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.

Funder

European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme

Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program

Community Grants 1535 Program

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Reference58 articles.

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