The effect of urban development on visitor numbers to nearby protected nature conservation sites

Abstract

Abstract New housing development can result in impacts on nearby protected nature conservation sites, even if development is outside the site boundary. High levels of housing may be associated with adverse impacts on ecological features in protected sites from increased recreation pressure. However, few studies have investigated the spatial link between housing and visitor numbers. An understanding of the impact of housing on visitor use, especially the distances at which housing relates to recreation levels and the importance of other factors (e.g. parking provision) is essential to inform the assessment of new housing and is relevant to strategic planning of development within the UK. We use a long-term visitor dataset (2003–8) to disentangle the housing–visitor association at foot-only and parking locations on important nature conservation sites. We conclude with negative binomial regressions that model the effect of housing on visitor numbers, while controlling for habitat, parking provision and season. Our results demonstrate that more housing consistently means more visitors to protected sites, across most habitats. This is particularly the case for on-foot visitors that originate from housing within 1.5 km, highlighting that additional housing development in proximity to protected sites is likely to significantly increase recreation pressure. For visitor numbers at parking locations, levels of housing within 15 km of protected sites were also a significant predictor, but depended on habitat type. These results demonstrate that housing allocations closer to protected sites are likely to have a greater impact in terms of visitor numbers and may help underpin future assessments of strategic plans.