Prognostic assessment of valvular surgery in active infective endocarditis: multicentric nationwide validation of a new score developed from a meta-analysis

Abstract

Abstract OBJECTIVES Several risk prediction models have been developed to estimate the risk of mortality after valve surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE), but few external validations have been conducted to assess their accuracy. We previously developed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of IE-specific factors for the in-hospital mortality rate after IE valve surgery, whose obtained pooled estimations were the basis for the development of a new score (APORTEI). The aim of the present study was to assess its prognostic accuracy in a nationwide cohort. METHODS We analysed the prognostic utility of the APORTEI score using patient-level data from a multicentric national cohort. Patients who underwent surgery for active IE between 2008 and 2018 were included. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the calibration was assessed using the calibration slope and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Agreement between the APORTEI and the EuroSCORE I was also analysed by Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), the Bland–Altman agreement analysis and a scatterplot graph. RESULTS The 11 variables that comprised the APORTEI score were analysed in the sample. The APORTEI score was calculated in 1338 patients. The overall observed surgical mortality rate was 25.56%. The score demonstrated adequate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.72–0.77) and calibration (calibration slope = 1.03; Hosmer–Lemeshow test P = 0.389). We found a lack of agreement between the APORTEI and EuroSCORE I (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS The APORTEI score, developed from a systematic review and meta-analysis, showed an adequate estimation of the risk of mortality after IE valve surgery in a nationwide cohort.