Author:
Chiba Daina,Martin Lanny W.,Stevenson Randolph T.
Abstract
Theories of coalition politics in parliamentary democracies have suggested that government formation and survival are jointly determined outcomes. An important empirical implication of these theories is that the sample of observed governments analyzed in studies of government survival may be nonrandomly selected from the population of potential governments. This can lead to serious inferential problems. Unfortunately, current empirical models of government survival are unable to account for the possible biases arising from nonrandom selection. In this study, we use a copula-based framework to assess, and correct for, the dependence between the processes of government formation and survival. Our results suggest that existing studies of government survival, by ignoring the selection problem, overstate the substantive importance of several covariates commonly included in empirical models.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science
Reference61 articles.
1. We use the Weibull specification here for illustrative purposes. In practice, we can use other distributions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, Gompertz, or Generalized Gamma, etc., to model the duration process. In the empirical application that follows, we estimate both Weibull and Log-logistic models and choose the model that better fits the data.
2. Selection Bias in Linear Regression, Logit and Probit Models
3. When Far Apart Becomes Too Far Apart: Evidence for a Threshold Effect in Coalition Formation
4. Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks
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