Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Published:2022-07-25 Issue:8 Volume:9 Page:
ISSN:2328-8957
Container-title:Open Forum Infectious Diseases
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Codi Allison¹^ORCID,Luk Damon¹,Braun David²,Cambeiro Juan³⁴,Besiroglu Tamay³⁵,Chen Eva⁶,de Cesaris Luis Enrique Urtubey⁶,Bocchini Paolo⁷,McAndrew Thomas¹

Affiliation:

1. College of Health, Lehigh University , Bethlehem, Pennsylvania , USA

2. Department of Psychology, College of Arts and Sciences, Lehigh University , Bethlehem, Pennsylvania , USA

3. Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University , New York , USA

4. Metaculus , Santa Cruz, California , USA

5. Computer Science and AI Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge, Massachusetts , USA

6. Good Judgment Inc , New York, New York , USA

7. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, P.C. Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science, Lehigh University , Bethlehem, Pennsylvania , USA

Abstract

Abstract Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

Funder

MIDAS

National Institute of General Medical Sciences

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Oncology

Link

https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofac354/45055093/ofac354.pdf

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