Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Author:

Pollett Simon,Johansson Michael A.ORCID,Reich Nicholas G.ORCID,Brett-Major DavidORCID,Del Valle Sara Y.ORCID,Venkatramanan SrinivasanORCID,Lowe RachelORCID,Porco TravisORCID,Berry Irina MaljkovicORCID,Deshpande Alina,Kraemer Moritz U. G.,Blazes David L.,Pan-ngum WirichadaORCID,Vespigiani Alessandro,Mate Suzanne E.,Silal Sheetal P.,Kandula SasikiranORCID,Sippy RachelORCID,Quandelacy Talia M.,Morgan Jeffrey J.ORCID,Ball Jacob,Morton Lindsay C.ORCID,Althouse Benjamin M.ORCID,Pavlin Julie,van Panhuis WilbertORCID,Riley Steven,Biggerstaff MatthewORCID,Viboud CecileORCID,Brady OliverORCID,Rivers CaitlinORCID

Abstract

Background The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. Methods and findings We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. Conclusions These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Funder

National Institute of General Medical Sciences

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Subject

General Medicine

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