Modelling marine diseases

Abstract

The unique characteristics of marine ecosystems have pushed investigators to refine well-tested and widely applied epidemiological modeling methods to understand marine disease dynamics. This chapter begins by reviewing models used to quantify within-host parasite dynamics in open marine ecosystems where infection is near universal. These models are powerful tools for quantifying how diseases respond to changing environmental conditions and, when reliable environmental data are available, can forecast marine disease risks into the future. This chapter then describes epidemiological models that consider transmission processes and parasite life histories unique to marine systems, and then incorporates disease processes in fisheries assessment models. Finally, because disease dynamics vary across local host populations, this chapter concludes by overviewing ocean circulation models and their use in understanding parasite dispersal and spread in marine ecosystems.