Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Author:

Ribeiro Joana1ORCID,Bingre Pedro2,Strubbe Diederik3,Santana Joana1,Capinha César4,Araújo Miguel B5,Reino Luís1

Affiliation:

1. University of Porto , Porto, Portugal

2. Coimbra Polytechnic , Coimbra, Portugal

3. University of Ghent , Ghent, Belgium

4. University of Lisbon , Lisbon, Portugal

5. University of Évora , Évora, Portugal

Abstract

AbstractInternational wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Funder

Foundation for Science and Technology

International Association for Open Knowledge on Invasive Alien Species

European Union

FCT

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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