Global invasion reconstructed and spatio-temporal distribution pattern dynamics of Sorghum halepense under climate and land-use change

Abstract

Abstract Context Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban, increasing invasion risk. However, invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. Objectives We first analyzed invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used species distribution model to examine whether future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. Methods We reconstructed invasive historical countries of S. halepense based on databases with detailed recorded countries and occurrences. We run biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5’ resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Results Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Future global cropland and urban areas were expected to increase, yet grassland areas decreased. Europe and North America provided more the PGSH of S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban, covering 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSH of S. halepense increased continuously in Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSH of S. halepense. Conclusions We constructed species distribution models associated with the near current and future environmental variables and LUC. Future PGSH of S. halepense was expected to increase, increasing invasion risk on agricultural LUC. These results are basic for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.