Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE

Abstract

SUMMARY A large ensemble of ice sheet projections to the end of the 21st century have been compiled within community-based initiatives. These ensembles allow for assessment of uncertainties in projections associated with climate forcing and a wide range of parameters governing ice sheet and shelf dynamics, including ice-ocean interactions. Herein, we compute geographically variable sea level ‘fingerprints’ associated with ∼320 simulations of polar ice sheet projections included in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 and ∼180 projections of glacier mass changes from the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. We find a strong correlation (coefficient > 0.97) between all fingerprints of Greenland Ice Sheet projections when considering a global region outside the near field of the ice sheet. Consistency in the fingerprints for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) projections is much weaker, though correlation coefficients > 0.80 were found for all projections with global mean sea level (GMSL) greater than 10 cm. The far-field variability in the fingerprints associated with the AIS is due in large part to the sea level change driven by Earth rotation changes. The size and position of the AIS on the south pole makes the rotational component of the sea level fingerprint highly sensitive to the geometry of the ice mass flux, a geometry that becomes more consistent as the GMSL associated with the ice sheet projection increases. Finally, the fingerprints of glacier mass flux show an intermediate level of consistency, with contributions from Antarctic glaciers being the primary driver of decorrelation.