The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
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Published:2023-12-21
Issue:24
Volume:16
Page:7461-7489
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Kopp Robert E.ORCID, Garner Gregory G., Hermans Tim H. J.ORCID, Jha Shantenu, Kumar Praveen, Reedy Alexander, Slangen Aimée B. A.ORCID, Turilli Matteo, Edwards Tamsin L.ORCID, Gregory Jonathan M.ORCID, Koubbe George, Levermann AndersORCID, Merzky Andre, Nowicki SophieORCID, Palmer Matthew D., Smith ChrisORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.
Funder
National Science Foundation National Aeronautics and Space Administration Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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