Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Author:

Nosyk Bohdan12,Zang Xiao12,Krebs Emanuel1,Min Jeong Eun1,Behrends Czarina N3,Del Rio Carlos4,Dombrowski Julia C5,Feaster Daniel J6,Golden Matthew5,Marshall Brandon D L7,Mehta Shruti H8,Metsch Lisa R9,Schackman Bruce R3,Shoptaw Steven10,Strathdee Steffanie A11

Affiliation:

1. BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

2. Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

3. Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA

4. Rollins School of Public Health and Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

5. Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

6. Department of Public Health Sciences, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA

7. School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA

8. Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

9. Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA

10. School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA

11. School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA

Abstract

Abstract We estimated 10-year (2020–2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], ˗1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, ˗2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Funder

National Institute on Drug Abuse

National Institutes of Health

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Microbiology (medical)

Reference16 articles.

1. HIV surveillance—United States, 1981–2008;Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC);MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep,2011

2. Building the case for localized approaches to HIV: structural conditions and health system capacity to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic in six US cities;Panagiotoglou;AIDS Behav,2018

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