A Role Theory Approach to Grand Strategy: Horizontal Role Contestation and Consensus in the Case of China

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops a framework for examining the grand strategies of great powers through the use of the role contestation literature. We first identify national role conceptions advocated by leaders and political factions, and then compare them to detect contestation between their favored foreign policy roles. We argue that long-term consensus on certain roles may coalesce into the enduring ingredients of grand strategies, while the existence of a high amount of role contestation between leaders and political factions over roles may suggest foreign policy is guided by more temporary foreign policy beliefs. We explore this argument through an illustrative case of contemporary China. Our findings identify substantial variation between the national role conceptions of China's leaders and their factions over time. Of particular note, we find that (1) President Xi Jinping seems to be experiencing a much higher amount of role contestation within the party on more nationalistic and aggressive roles than his predecessors, and (2) certain roles, such as developer, Tianxia, regional leadership, and internal developer, are very consistent among both leaders and their factions over time such that these roles can be considered as part of China's grand strategy. This study shows how role theory might inform the analysis of grand strategy by offering a means of observing enduring features of grand strategy that could be applied more broadly to other countries.