Integration of machine learning into process-based modelling to improve simulation of complex crop responses

Abstract

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is the most advanced field of predictive modelling and incorporating it into process-based crop modelling is a highly promising avenue for accurate predictions of plant growth, development and yield. Here, we embed ML algorithms into a process-based crop model. ML is used within GLAM-Parti for daily predictions of radiation use efficiency, the rate of change of harvest index and the days to anthesis and maturity. The GLAM-Parti-ML framework exhibited high skill for wheat growth and development in a wide range of temperature, solar radiation and atmospheric humidity conditions, including various levels of heat stress. The model exhibited less than 20 % error in simulating the above-ground biomass, grain yield and the days to anthesis and maturity of three wheat cultivars in six countries (USA, Mexico, Egypt, India, the Sudan and Bangladesh). Moreover, GLAM-Parti reproduced around three-quarters of the observed variance in wheat biomass and yield. Existing process-based crop models rely on empirical stress factors to limit growth potential in simulations of crop response to unfavourable environmental conditions. The incorporation of ML into GLAM-Parti eliminated all stress factors under high-temperature environments and reduced the physiological model parameters down to four. We conclude that the combination of process-based crop modelling with the predictive capacity of ML makes GLAM-Parti a highly promising framework for the next generation of crop models.