Future sea-level rise in northwest Mexico is projected to decrease the distribution and habitat quality of the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot)

Abstract

Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most unequivocal consequences of climate change, yet the implications for shorebirds and their coastal habitats are not well understood, especially outside of the north temperate zone. Here, we show that by the year 2050, SLR has the potential to cause significant habitat loss and reduce the quality of the remaining coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico—one of the most important regions for Nearctic breeding migratory shorebirds. Specifically, we used species distribution modeling and a moderate SLR static inundation scenario to assess the effects of future SLR on coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico and the potential distribution of Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot), a threatened long-distance migratory shorebird. Our results suggest that under a moderate SLR scenario, 55% of the current coastal wetland extent in northwest Mexico will be at risk of permanent submergence by 2050, and the high-quality habitat areas that remain will be 20% less suitable for C. c. roselaari. What is more, 8 out of the 10 wetlands currently supporting the largest numbers of C. c. roselaari are predicted to lose, on average, 17.8% of their Highly Suitable Habitat (HSH) areas, with 2 sites completely losing all of their HSH. In combination with increasing levels of coastal development and anthropogenic disturbance in Northwest Mexico, these predicted changes suggest that the potential future distribution of C. c. roselaari (and other shorebirds) will likely contract, exacerbating their ongoing population declines. Our results also make clear that SLR will likely have profound effects on ecosystems outside the north temperate zones, providing a clarion call to natural resource managers. Urgent action is required to begin securing sufficient space to accommodate the natural capacity of wetlands to migrate inland and implement local-scale solutions that strengthen the resilience of wetlands and human populations to SLR.