Space variability impacts on hydrological responses of nature-based solutions and the resulting uncertainty: a case study of Guyancourt (France)

Abstract

Abstract. During the last few decades, the urban hydrological cycle has been strongly modified by the built environment, resulting in fast runoff and increasing the risk of waterlogging. Nature-based solutions (NBSs), which apply green infrastructures, have been more and more widely considered as a sustainable approach for urban storm water management. However, the assessment of NBS performance still requires further modelling development because of hydrological modelling results strongly depend on the representation of the multiscale space variability of both the rainfall and the NBS distributions. Indeed, we initially argue this issue with the help of the multifractal intersection theorem. To illustrate the importance of this question, the spatial heterogeneous distributions of two series of NBS scenarios (porous pavement, rain garden, green roof, and combined) are quantified with the help of their fractal dimension. We point out the consequences of their estimates. Then, a fully distributed and physically based hydrological model (Multi-Hydro) was applied to consider the studied catchment and these NBS scenarios with a spatial resolution of 10 m. A total of two approaches for processing the rainfall data were considered for three rainfall events, namely gridded and catchment averaged. These simulations show that the impact of the spatial variability in rainfall on the uncertainty of peak flow of NBS scenarios ranges from about 8 % to 18 %, which is more significant than those of the total runoff volume. In addition, the spatial variability in the rainfall intensity at the largest rainfall peak responds almost linearly to the uncertainty of the peak flow of NBS scenarios. However, the hydrological responses of NBS scenarios are less affected by the spatial distribution of NBSs. Finally, the intersection of the spatial variability in rainfall and the spatial arrangement of NBSs produces a somewhat significant effect on the peak flow of green roof scenarios and the total runoff volume of combined scenarios.