Design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM
-
Published:2014-04-16
Issue:2
Volume:7
Page:621-629
-
ISSN:1991-9603
-
Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Evans J. P.ORCID, Ji F., Lee C., Smith P., Argüeso D.ORCID, Fita L.
Abstract
Abstract. Including the impacts of climate change in decision making and planning processes is a challenge facing many regional governments including the New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) governments in Australia. NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modelling project that aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent set of climate projections that can be used by all relevant government departments when considering climate change. To maximise end user engagement and ensure outputs are relevant to the planning process, a series of stakeholder workshops were run to define key aspects of the model experiment including spatial resolution, time slices, and output variables. As with all such experiments, practical considerations limit the number of ensemble members that can be simulated such that choices must be made concerning which global climate models (GCMs) to downscale from, and which regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale with. Here a methodology for making these choices is proposed that aims to sample the uncertainty in both GCM and RCM ensembles, as well as spanning the range of future climate projections present in the GCM ensemble. The RCM selection process uses performance evaluation metrics to eliminate poor performing models from consideration, followed by explicit consideration of model independence in order to retain as much information as possible in a small model subset. In addition to these two steps the GCM selection process also considers the future change in temperature and precipitation projected by each GCM. The final GCM selection is based on a subjective consideration of the GCM independence and future change. The created ensemble provides a more robust view of future regional climate changes. Future research is required to determine objective criteria that could replace the subjective aspects of the selection process.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Reference40 articles.
1. Bishop, C. H. and Abramowitz, G.: Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm, Clim. Dynam., 41, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y, 2013. 2. Charles, A., Timbal, B., Fernandez, E., and Hendon, H.: Analog downscaling of seasonal rainfall forecasts in the Murray darling basin, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1099–1117, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00098.1, 2013. 3. Chiew, F. H. S., Teng, J., Vaze, J., and Kirono, D. G. C.: Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment, J. Hydrol., 379, 172–180, 2009. 4. Christensen, J., Carter, T., Rummukainen, M., and Amanatidis, G.: Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project, Climatic Change, 81, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6, 2007. 5. Collins, M., Booth, B., Harris, G., Murphy, J., Sexton, D., and Webb, M.: Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Clim. Dynam., 27, 127–147, 2006.
Cited by
167 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|