Probabilistic characteristics of narrow-band long-wave run-up onshore

Abstract

Abstract. The run-up of random long-wave ensemble (swell, storm surge, and tsunami) on the constant-slope beach is studied in the framework of the nonlinear shallow-water theory in the approximation of non-breaking waves. If the incident wave approaches the shore from the deepest water, run-up characteristics can be found in two stages: in the first stage, linear equations are solved and the wave characteristics at the fixed (undisturbed) shoreline are found, and in the second stage the nonlinear dynamics of the moving shoreline is studied by means of the Riemann (nonlinear) transformation of linear solutions. In this paper, detailed results are obtained for quasi-harmonic (narrow-band) waves with random amplitude and phase. It is shown that the probabilistic characteristics of the run-up extremes can be found from the linear theory, while the same ones of the moving shoreline are from the nonlinear theory. The role of wave-breaking due to large-amplitude outliers is discussed, so that it becomes necessary to consider wave ensembles with non-Gaussian statistics within the framework of the analytical theory of non-breaking waves. The basic formulas for calculating the probabilistic characteristics of the moving shoreline and its velocity through the incident wave characteristics are given. They can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.