Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment
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Published:2022-08-31
Issue:9
Volume:13
Page:1371-1391
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ISSN:1869-9529
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Container-title:Solid Earth
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Solid Earth
Author:
Li LimingORCID, Li Xianrui, Yang Fanyan, Pan Lili, Tian Jingxiong
Abstract
Abstract. The slip rates of active faults in the northeastern Tibetan
Plateau (NETP) require clarification to understand the lateral expansion of
the Tibetan Plateau and assess the seismic hazards in this region. To obtain
the continuous slip rates of active faults at the NETP, we constructed a
three-dimensional (3D) numerical geomechanics model that includes a complex
3D fault system. The model also accounts for the physical rock properties,
gravity fields, fault friction coefficients, initial stress, and boundary
conditions. Following this, we present the long-term kinematics of NETP based on the
horizontal and vertical velocities and fault slip rates acquired from the
model. The fault kinematic characteristics indicate that the Laohushan,
middle–southern Liupanshan, and Guguan–Baoji faults, as well as the
junction area of the Maxianshan and Zhuanglanghe faults, are potential
hazard areas for strong earthquakes. However, as these faults are currently
in the stress accumulation stage, they are unlikely to cause a strong
earthquake in the short term. In contrast, it is likely that the
Jinqiangshan–Maomaoshan fault will generate a earthquake with a surface-wave magnitude (MS) of 7.1–7.3
in the coming decades. In addition, the velocity profiles across the NETP
imply that the plate rotation is the primary deformation mechanism of the
NETP even though the intra-block straining and faulting are non-negligible.
Funder
Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia Province
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Paleontology,Stratigraphy,Earth-Surface Processes,Geochemistry and Petrology,Geology,Geophysics,Soil Science
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