Modelling human impacts on surface and subsurface hydrological drought

Author:

Senbeta Tesfaye BelayORCID,Kochanek Krzysztof,Karamuz Emilia,Napiorkowski Jaroslaw Jan

Abstract

Abstract. The scientists tend to assume that climatic factors are the only drivers in the development of drought. However, this classical assumption is no longer valid in the Anthropocene, as most catchments have been significantly modified by human factors. Recent theoretical developments have shown that there are mutual interactions and feedback mechanisms – drought shapes humans and vice versa. Therefore, this study aims to assess the role of human impacts on hydrological drought (HD) characteristics by considering runoff and baseflow separately. For this purpose, the two rainfall-runoff models: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and HBV (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) models are compared. The results show significant differences in the magnitude of change between the two models, suggesting that the ensemble method of multiple models need to be considered for modelling human impact. However, the results confirm that despite significant differences in the magnitude of change, both hydrological models indicate similar impacts, i.e. positive and negative.

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

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