Abstract
Abstract. Using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique
historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme
droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than
10 % from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering
both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial
coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages of extreme
droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes
and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were
29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000.
For most of these extreme drought (flood) events, precipitation decreased
(increased) evidently at most of the sites for the four seasons, especially
for summer and autumn. But in drought years of 1902 and 1981, precipitation
only decreased in summer slightly, while it decreased evidently in the other
three seasons. Similarly, the precipitation anomalies for different seasons
at different sites also existed in several extreme flood years, such as 1794,
1823, 1867, 1872 and 1961. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or
more events) during the 1770s–1780s, 1870s, 1900s–1930s and 1980s–1990s,
among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s.
More frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s,
1910s and 1950s–1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in
the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they were
more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1930s and 1960s, and
the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability
of extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or
the previous year. However, no significant connections were found between the
occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, or the occurrences of
extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.
Subject
Paleontology,Stratigraphy,Global and Planetary Change
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