Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison
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Published:2021-01-21
Issue:2
Volume:21
Page:853-874
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Thornhill Gillian D., Collins William J.ORCID, Kramer Ryan J.ORCID, Olivié Dirk, Skeie Ragnhild B.ORCID, O'Connor Fiona M., Abraham Nathan LukeORCID, Checa-Garcia RamiroORCID, Bauer Susanne E.ORCID, Deushi MakotoORCID, Emmons Louisa K.ORCID, Forster Piers M., Horowitz Larry W., Johnson BenORCID, Keeble JamesORCID, Lamarque Jean-FrancoisORCID, Michou Martine, Mills Michael J.ORCID, Mulcahy Jane P.ORCID, Myhre GunnarORCID, Nabat Pierre, Naik Vaishali, Oshima NagaORCID, Schulz MichaelORCID, Smith Christopher J.ORCID, Takemura ToshihikoORCID, Tilmes SimoneORCID, Wu TongwenORCID, Zeng GuangORCID, Zhang JieORCID
Abstract
Abstract. This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014)
effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX,
volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and
concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using
CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can
cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species:
tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour,
secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break
down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the
composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that
participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project,
where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are
−1.03 ± 0.37 W m−2 for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W m−2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W m−2 for black
carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W m−2 for NH3. For the
combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W m−2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse
gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W m−2 for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W m−2
for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W m−2 for
ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen
oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together
(O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W m−2 respectively. The differences in
ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the
complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of
methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone
production.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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