Control simulation experiment with Lorenz's butterfly attractor
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Published:2022-03-28
Issue:1
Volume:29
Page:133-139
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ISSN:1607-7946
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Container-title:Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nonlin. Processes Geophys.
Author:
Miyoshi TakemasaORCID, Sun Qiwen
Abstract
Abstract. In numerical weather prediction (NWP), sensitivity to initial conditions brings chaotic behaviors and an intrinsic limit to
predictability, but it also implies an effective control in which a small
control signal grows rapidly to make a substantial difference. The Observing
Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a well-known approach to study
predictability, where “nature” is synthesized by an independent NWP model run. In this study, we extend the OSSE and design the control
simulation experiment (CSE), where we apply a small signal to control “nature”. Idealized experiments with the Lorenz-63 three-variable system show that we can control “nature” to stay in a chosen regime without
shifting to the other, i.e., in a chosen wing of Lorenz's butterfly attractor, by adding small perturbations to “nature”. Using longer-lead-time forecasts, we achieve more effective control with a
perturbation size of less than only 3 % of the observation error. We anticipate our idealized CSE to be a starting point for a realistic CSE using the real-world NWP systems, toward possible future applications to reduce
weather disaster risks. The CSE may be applied to other chaotic systems
beyond NWP.
Funder
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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