Snow cover prediction in the Italian central Apennines using weather forecast and land surface numerical models

Abstract

Abstract. Italy is a territory characterized by complex topography with the Apennines mountain range crossing the entire peninsula and its highest peaks in central Italy. Using the latter as our area of interest and the snow seasons 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21, the goal of this study is to investigate the ability of a simple single-layer and a more sophisticated multi-layer snow cover numerical model to reproduce the observed snow height, snow water equivalent and snow extent in the central Apennines, using for both models the same forecast weather data as meteorological forcing. We here consider two well-known ground surface and soil models: (i) Noah LSM, an Eulerian model which simulates the snowpack as a bulk single layer, and (ii) Alpine3D, a multi-layer Lagrangian model which simulates the snowpack stratification. We adopt the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to produce the meteorological data to drive both Noah LSM and Alpine3D at a regional scale with a spatial resolution of 3 km. While Noah LSM is already online-coupled with the WRF model, we develop here a dedicated offline coupling between WRF and Alpine3D. We validate the WRF simulations of surface meteorological variables in central Italy using a dense network of automatic weather stations, obtaining correlation coefficients higher than 0.68, except for wind speed, which suffered from the model underestimation of the real elevation. The performances of both WRF–Noah and WRF–Alpine3D are evaluated by comparing simulated and measured snow height, snow height variation and snow water equivalent, provided by a quality-controlled network of automatic and manual snow stations located in the central Apennines. We find that WRF–Alpine3D can predict better than WRF–Noah the snow height and the snow water equivalent, showing a correlation coefficient with the observations of 0.9 for the former and 0.7 for the latter. Both models show similar performances in reproducing the observed daily snow height variation; nevertheless WRF–Noah is slightly better at predicting large positive variations, while WRF–Alpine3D can slightly better simulate large negative variations. Finally we investigate the abilities of the models in simulating the snow cover area fraction, and we show that WRF–Noah and WRF–Alpine3D have almost equal skills, with both models overestimating it. The equal skills are also confirmed by Jaccard and the average symmetric surface distance indices.